ATP Dubai Open Analysis
3/8/2024
25-year-old Ugo Humbert’s record against Daniil Medvedev is, after their meeting last week in Dubai, 3-1 in favor of the Frenchman. For a player that had, before February, never been ranked higher than 20 in the world, this is a major accomplishment. Medvedev has been known to struggle against French players, but this article will describe why exactly Humbert was able to beat the world number four for the third time.
Just Like Sinner
Medvedev’s technical improvements in the past year are notable. The Russian has developed new dimensions for his unorthodox style, counteracting the potential plateau he would experience against top opponents. Against Sinner in the Australian Open final, Medvedev notably played with a closer return position, attempting to be more aggressive on the return. Sinner, who had beaten him in their three previous meetings, would go on to beat Medvedev from two sets to love down after experiencing a significant scare.
Sinner’s meetings against Medvedev at the finals of Beijing and Vienna highlighted a more nuanced way to beat the Russian in his improved state. Even though Ugo Humbert’s improvements over the past six months have been immense, he definitely cashed in on Sinner’s strategies. The tactics Humbert deployed, such as his use of angles and variation, as well as his usual flattened ground strokes proved lethal.
Angles and Groundstrokes
Ugo Humbert’s ground strokes are unusually flat. This, combined with his lefty game make him a difficult opponent for just about anyone. After taking out Hubert Hurkacz in the quarter-final, Humbert was eager to rush Medvedev’s forehand side. Medvedev’s larger and therefore slower take-back makes his forehand vulnerable against a ball with less topspin. As a result, Humbert opted to take a closer return position for Medvedev’s first serve. Due to Medvedev’s positioning closer to the baseline, Humbert charged forward on his forehand return. This forced Medvedev into defensive positions on his own plus-one.
When the serve came to Humbert’s backhand side, he opted to block the ball into Medvedev’s body. Medvedev would often continue to trade groundstrokes through the center of the court due to Humbert’s lack of pace on his return. This would allow the point to reset, giving Humbert the possibility to set up his forehand.
The flatness of Humbert’s groundstrokes combined with his ability to create sharp angles continually rushed Medvedev’s movement. Both Humbert’s inside-in and inside-out forehands were massive weapons throughout this match. When trading cross court, Humbert’s forehand was devastating against Medvedev’s backhand side. Humbert was an expert at creating short angles by hitting the ball through the sidelines. These balls pulled Medvedev into the court, giving him less time and less of an angle on his return.
Variation
Humbert’s angles were enhanced through his variation. It is well known that a backhand slice against Medvedev has positive effects. Just as with Humbert’s blocked return to the center of the court, Medvedev does not like to generate his own pace. This, in addition to the low height of the ball, hurt’s Medvedev’s groundstrokes.
Against Medvedev, playing with unpredictability and consistency is crucial. As highlighted previously, Humbert is also comfortable with playing down the line on both his backhand and forehand. This leaves him options to switch up the rally and move Medvedev from side to side. Humbert is also comfortable with playing extended rallies with the Russian number four without making an error. Although he is obviously more error-strewn than his opposition, Humbert’s choice of shot is still calculated and precise. This allows him to have more return on investment when he does play a lower-percentage shot.
While on serve, Humbert was capable of generating free points. His lefty slice and unpredictable placement cropped up at crucial moments. Overall, Humbert converted on more of his breakpoint opportunities throughout the match.
Conclusion
Indian Wells and clay season may not bode well for the highest ranked French player due to his style of play. However, Ugo Humbert is a name to remember for the rest of this year. His unusual groundstrokes and unwavering mentality in big matches could make him a major factor in Grand Slams like Wimbledon and the US Open.