Nitto ATP Finals Analysis
11/18/2023
Context – Sinner is on top
Before the China Open this year, Jannik Sinner had only ever beaten one top ten player in Carlos Alcaraz. Heading into this year’s ATP finals, Sinner had beaten Alcaraz (again), Daniil Medvedev (twice) and Andrey Rublev. In the past five months, Sinner has won a Masters 1000 and two ATP 500s. This run has only continued in his wins against Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic (who had not lost since Wimbledon in July). With the home crowd on Sinner’s side, most believed that his two wins earlier in the round robin would not deter him from playing his best against Holger Rune.
Rune’s season has followed the opposite trajectory. After Wimbledon, Rune found himself in what was described by Prime Video’s coverage as “free-fall,” only making it past the second round of a tournament twice since July. The addition of Boris Becker to his team has brought back traces of the form he found on clay earlier this year, but ultimately was not enough to make it to the semi-finals.
Sinner’s First Set Dominance
Few were surprised to see that Sinner came out of the blocks firing. The true shock was just how well Sinner was playing. In addition to the speed and power of his groundstrokes, Sinner played with immense accuracy and physicality to ground Rune down to a pulp.
Sinner won 84% of his first serve points throughout the match. His serve rating from Tennis Insights of 8.7, a significant improvement from the beginning of the season. The world number four used short and dominant service games, with the serve and volley making a common appearance.
It was a mixture of Rune’s own temperamental approach and Sinner’s relentless consistency that made the first set so one-sided. Sinner’s ability to change the direction of his groundstrokes with pace and precision forced Rune’s footwork into effect. Rune’s movement was sluggish, forcing him to try to end rallies early by coming to the net or using a drop shot at the wrong time. Rune’s decision making and lack of mobility are noticeable components of his current game. Sinner did well to exploit these weaknesses to the fullest.
When Rune did challenge Sinner to a longer, physical rally, Sinner played closer (or even inside) the baseline. This rushed Rune’s groundstokes and forced uncharacteristic errors out of the Dane. Furthermore, Rune found most of his net play to be futile, seemingly misjudging Sinner’s positioning and ability to reach shorter volleys or drop-shots.
Rune’s Comeback
It is not unreasonable to assume that Sinner’s physical ailments cost him the second set. Sinner was now the one attempting to shorten rallies, and his ability to change direction with ease was hindered. As the game slowed down, Rune was able to find his footing. His tactical strategy began to inflict damage and his shotmaking held steady.