ATP Qatar Open Analysis
2/25/2024
Context
At 3,000 points less than 4th ranked Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, according to Tennis Channel’s stream, had little to fight for this week at Doha 250. Most would disagree with this take. Every game played by Rublev is warfare. This week, Rublev did not just meet his match in terms of hunger to win, but in physicality as well. 18-year-old Jakub Menšík’s bombardment of serves and defensive aggression beat the war strategist at his own game.
Artillery
Although Menšík’s serve percentage was only 66%, his serving was nothing short of excellent. Menšík regularly recorded first serves close to 130 miles per hour as Rublev scrambled to make anything out of the point. Menšík’s slice serve regularly curled out of Rublev’s reach with excessive spin and angle, a feature of his game that also showed up with regularity in his ground strokes. Menšík’s first service points won was above 80%, a similar number to Rublev throughout the match. However, in key moments, this number rose to close to 100% for Menšík as he saved 6/6 break points from the Russian number five. Furthermore, Menšík plus-one ball was deadly. If Rublev’s return was lacking, Menšík plunged towards the net. His comfort at the net should be noted in sharp contrast to Rublev’s attempts early in the match which deterred further exploits.
Menšík’s forehand was equally lethal. His acceleration through the racket-head rivaled the man standing across the net. His ball also possessed heavy topspin and acutely angled positioning, differentiating him from the, somewhat accurate, interpretation of Rublev’s main weapon. Menšík placed his returns deep, attempting to disrupt Rublev’s rhythm. Menšík used his forehand as a launch pad for his tactics. Just as with his serve, his forehand forced uncertain returns out of Rublev, allowing him to further break down the point.
Variation
Menšík’s shotmaking ability is notable. Not only does he wield an accurate, powerful serve and forehand but he is also comfortable with his backhand slice and drop shot. Menšík utilized the former against Rublev’s forehand in rallies to force the Russian to generate his own power. Although used sparingly, Menšík’s slice prevented Rublev from finding his forehand flow. The same can be said for his drop shot which drew Rublev in on occasion to force the easy put-away.
In addition to his shot-making, Menšík was also comfortable with playing his forehand down the line to redirect the ball into Rublev’s backhand. At points throughout the match, Rublev would run around the ball to hit his forehand. Menšík took advantage of the open space, attempting to rifle the ball into the open deuce court. This is shown in the graphic below.
At 4 games to 5 in the second set with the score at 30 to 30, Menšík decided to go down the line. Rublev and Menšík had already traded backhands cross court for several shots. This move forced Rublev to scramble, barely making his forehand return. Menšík then opts to slice the ball to Rublev’s backhand, forcing the Russian to run back across the court and generate his own shot-power. On the return, Menšík creates even more of a wide angle. Rublev chooses to run around the ball in an attempt to use his forehand to finish the point. The ball ends up going long. In this point, Menšík uses his variation and shot selection to force Rublev into making an error.
Counterattack and Conclusion
Rublev won 55% of his second service points whereas Menšík was only able to win 48%. However, the points that Menšík did win set him up for his one break of the match. Menšík’s return position was very close to the baseline. He jumped forward as Rublev was hitting the ball, opting to take his return on the rise. This pressed Rublev for time if Menšík made the return, setting the Czech up for an equal baseline rally. Although Menšík lacked experience in this area against the likes of Rublev, his ability to move quickly, slide on both feet, and generate power posed a unique threat to the Russian.
Overall, Jakub Menšík is certainly a name to watch out for in the future. He was given entry to Dubai’s main draw after an excellent run at his maiden ATP tour-level tournament in Doha. He lost the final 7-6 7-6 to Rublev’s compatriot Karen Khachanov.