Nitto ATP Finals Analysis
11/15/2023
Daniil Medvedev rarely loses to players that do not play with variety. Called “Octopus” by a number of his compatriots, the Russian excels at counterpunching his way through just about any opponent. Carlos Alcaraz is a great example of a bad matchup for Medvedev, with his unique point construction and delicate touch. Andrey Rublev on the other hand, stylistically, faces an almost insurmountable task in the world number three.
Medvedev invites Rublev’s pace and power with warmth, gladly redirecting the forehand strikes that 99% of ATP players find difficult to handle. Medvedev relies on the pace of other players to generate his attack. If he is unable to redirect the ball into meaningful opposition, he will wear the opponent down with long rallies and unrelenting consistency. As is shown in the tweet to the right, Medvedev wins the most points out of the top eight players when he is defending.
If Rublev were to beat Medvedev, his options were limited. Rublev does not possess the loopy, slow forehand required to force Medvedev to generate his own pace. Nor does Rublev possess a slice worthy of concern. This meant that Rublev was going to have to maximize the tools at his disposal.
Rublev’s Strategy
Andrey Rublev’s main strategy came from his net game. He served and volleyed off of Medvedev’s first serve return with relative success. In longer rallies, Rublev constructed points often with the goal of hitting a drive volley.
The point showcased below is during the first set when Medvedev was up a break at 4-3. Rublev immediately tried to break back. Before this point, Rublev was up 15-30 with Medvedev serving.
Before the diagram, Rublev and Medvedev had already played a 12-shot long rally, with the majority of strokes being traded through the middle of the court. Rublev was patient, hitting slower backhands to Medvedev’s backhand side so that Medvedev could not generate significant pace. Once Medvedev hit Rublev’s forehand, the attack began.
Rublev hit his favored inside-out forehand with a good angle, forcing Medvedev to return cross court with a running forehand. Medvedev is an expert at this shot, but it pulls him off the court significantly. Rublev reads the play perfectly, hitting a powerful strike down the line. Medvedev is late on his return, having to turn and sprint the length of the baseline, and the ball is behind him when he hits it. Rublev prepared to come forward but is unsure of the return location. He moves forward towards the center of the court before coming to the net to finish the point with a drive volley.
Rublev’s ability to drag Medvedev off of the court with his shot selection in addition to his net game were successful. However, his commitment to being patient and his willingness to physically compete with Medvedev are what made the first set so entertaining.
Rublev’s Frustrations
Although Rublev made 16/20 of his points at the net, the balls he missed cost him valuable points. Medvedev broke twice on games where Rublev needed to do better on his drive volleys. Rublev’s lack of comfort with his play at the net and lack of comfort with his slice backhand proved detrimental to his success.
Rublev was only able to return 17% of Medvedev’s first serves while Medvedev returned 38%. This played out in first serve points won, where Medvedev won 83% of his first serve points and Rublev only won 62%. Medvedev’s lack of unforced errors and first serve cushioned his lack of creativity in the first set. Any chinks in the armor from Rublev were enough to unravel his entire game. It took Medvedev until 30-15 in the eight game to make an unforced error. Rublev had made ten in the same timeframe.
Ultimately, Medvedev was too much to handle. As Rublev’s mental wall began to crack, he could not execute his tactical strategy. Medvedev’s own tactics of hitting the ball deep and to Rublev’s backhand nullified the forehand excellence. Rublev was unable to find the angles necessary to continue to drag Medvedev off of the court.